U.S. Box Office Heads for $9 Billion in 2025, But Is It Enough to Revive Pre-Covid Numbers?
As we enter 2025, the U.S. box office is projected to reach a significant milestone: an estimated $9 billion in ticket sales. This would be a slight increase over the 2024 total of $8.7 billion, but still far from the glory days before the Covid-19 pandemic. While this year promises a busy slate of movies, questions linger about the long-term health of moviegoing in America.
ComScore reports that 110 movies are slated to open in over 2,000 theaters each in 2025, setting a new post-pandemic record. This suggests a strong return to normalcy for the film industry, particularly after the disruptions of the pandemic and strikes. 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash will kick off the year’s big releases, following the huge success of Avatar: The Way of Water. Studios and exhibitors alike are optimistic, with some even celebrating the merger of Paramount and Skydance as a sign of strength for the industry.
But there’s a catch. Despite the optimistic forecasts, the box office still faces a significant gap. The days of surpassing $11 billion at the domestic box office annually, as seen in 2018, seem far behind. The pandemic changed how people watch movies. A large portion of moviegoers has become accustomed to streaming content from the comfort of their homes, making it harder to persuade them to return to the theaters.
Take Robert Thies from Brattleboro, Vermont, for example. A former frequent moviegoer, Thies now only ventures to the cinema when there’s a truly compelling reason. Even with a large family, the high price of tickets—ranging from $12 to $16 per person—has made him think twice. With theaters not always nearby, Thies finds it easier and more cost-effective to watch the latest blockbuster on streaming services like Disney+.
Frank Macaluso, 70, from Yorktown Heights, New York, shares similar sentiments. A fan of awards-season films, Macaluso now prefers to watch movies at home, where he can start and stop at his convenience. He’s not alone; while the number of people who prefer to watch movies in theaters slightly increased from 2022 to 2024, it hasn’t been a dramatic change.
What does this mean for the future of moviegoing? The movie industry is facing an identity crisis. Many studio executives are concerned that if theatrical releases become merely advertisements for streaming, audiences will lose interest in going to the movies altogether. This fear is growing as more films are released with shorter theatrical windows, pushing them into home viewing sooner than ever.
Yet, there’s hope. The evidence shows that movies with shorter theatrical windows—those that transition quickly to PVOD (premium video on demand)—often still perform well at the box office. Universal’s The Wild Robot and Twisters are prime examples of films that saw strong box office returns even after moving to PVOD. This suggests that there may be a new model for how movies are marketed and consumed.
However, if movie studios don’t invest in the marketing and promotion of their films, they risk reducing the impact of their theatrical releases. Films with lackluster promotions can struggle to generate buzz, which limits their ability to create word-of-mouth excitement.
To turn things around, industry experts suggest that studios and exhibitors need to work together to create a more compelling case for moviegoing. A campaign like the famous “Got Milk?” ads could be a way to remind people of the joy and experience of seeing a movie in theaters. The growing popularity of premium large format (PLF) screens, such as IMAX, has shown that high-quality movie experiences can drive audiences back to theaters. Studios are already planning to build more PLF screens, with IMAX planning to add 120 new theaters globally in the next two years.
Ultimately, while the U.S. box office is on track for a $9 billion year, the industry still faces challenges in rebuilding the audience it lost during the pandemic. Studios, theaters, and audiences alike will need to find new ways to bring back the excitement of moviegoing. Whether it’s through improved marketing, better theater experiences, or a mix of theatrical and streaming releases, the road to recovery is far from over.
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