Business Travel Outlook Declines Amid Trade Tensions
The global business travel industry in 2025 is feeling the pressure from escalating U.S. trade policies and ongoing economic uncertainty. A new report from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) reveals that optimism among business travel professionals has dropped by more than half, raising concerns for the future of international corporate travel.
In November 2024, 67% of surveyed professionals were optimistic about the industry. By April 2025, that number had plummeted to just 31%.
Key Findings: How the Trade War Is Affecting Business Travel
According to the GBTA survey of over 900 global travel managers and buyers:
- One-third of companies have either changed or are considering changing travel policies to and from the United States.
- Nearly 30% of business travel buyers expect fewer employee trips in 2025.
- Around 27% anticipate a drop in business travel spending.
- Over 25% of respondents in the U.S., Canada, and Europe feel “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” about the business travel outlook.
“This is the highest level of uncertainty I’ve seen in four years,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA.
Global Business Travel Spending Faces Pressure
Concerns are rising about the long-term impacts of U.S. tariffs and border policies on business travel:
- 54% of survey participants worry about increased travel costs.
- 46% are concerned about visa processing delays.
- Some 6% of companies have already moved events out of the United States to other regions.
Despite these challenges, the global business travel market is still expected to surpass $1.6 trillion by the end of 2025. If current tensions ease, that figure could exceed $2 trillion by 2028, according to GBTA projections.
Trade Wars May Spark New Travel Needs
Interestingly, trade conflicts don’t just suppress travel—they can also create new travel opportunities. As companies seek alternative suppliers and partners due to disrupted trade relationships, new markets open up.
“Trade wars can lead to a wave of business travel as companies search for new partners,” Neufang noted.
This shift may benefit Asia, Europe, and Latin America, as more meetings and events get relocated away from the U.S.
Falling Airfare May Offer Temporary Relief
Global airfare has seen a modest decrease—down 2.2% or about $17 year-to-date—according to FCM Consulting. While this provides some relief, it’s unlikely to offset the broader economic and political pressures facing corporate travel managers.
U.S. Leisure Travel Also Takes a Hit
The U.S. leisure travel sector is also experiencing a slowdown. International visitor spending in 2025 is forecast to drop 4.7% compared to 2024, representing an $8.5 billion loss for the American travel industry. That’s a stark contrast to earlier expectations of robust growth this year.
What’s Next for Business Travel in 2025?
While uncertainty clouds the immediate future, business travel is proving resilient. Even amid trade conflicts and policy shifts, companies continue to adapt. The need to build new partnerships and explore alternative markets may drive new types of business travel in emerging regions.
Quick Summary
- Business travel optimism dropped from 67% to 31% in 6 months.
- 30% of buyers expect fewer trips in 2025.
- Trade wars are causing companies to rethink travel policies, especially to/from the U.S.
- Spending may hit $1.6 trillion in 2025, but risks remain.
- New opportunities are emerging in Asia, Europe, and Latin America.
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